What Might #Covid Numbers Look like by Easter

I put together four scenarios for where we might be by Easter. To get there, I created four estimates of the growth curve.

Scenario One

I calculated the average daily growth of new cases since March 4. That works out to about 1.33, or one third more new cases each day. I then ran out a the daily growth through April 12 if we continue on that trajectory, which would be fairly catastrophic.

Scenario Two

I used a lower growth rate of 1.25 assuming a modest reduction in growth, but not a lot more because so many states are not enacting social distancing and are unlikely to do so until their numbers are much higher.

Scenario Three

I used a slightly greater reduction of 1.2, assuming more success with social distancing, but still not seeing overall reduction.

Scenario Four

I used a rate of 1.2 through April 1 dropping to 1.08 through 4/8 and dropping to 1.06 until Easter. This is what I estimate to be the “best case” scenario with social distancing. Similar to what we are seeing in Italy the last few days, the rates are going up, but not as fast. Italy’s daily growth rate yesterday, after several days of decline, is .08. I suspect within a week they may be as low as .06. Keep in mind, this is an average, so some days in Italy this week will have been higher, some will be lower. Same for next week.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Under scenario One, with our current average growth rate, nearly 13 million Americans could be infected by Easter. This is the worst case scenario, but also not likely. Given the social distancing we are seeing, the numbers should hopefully begin to fall in places that are sheltering in place, but likely to rise elsewhere. This should lead to a lower average growth rate than 1.33. This would almost certainly lead to catastrophic collapse of our medial infrastructure.

Under the two mid-tier scenarios, somewhere between 1.75 and 3.8 million Americans could be infected by Easter. As you will see in the table, as of 5pm today we have added 9700 new cases. This puts us right in line with the 1.2 to 1.25 calculations by the time we end the day. That’s good news as it indicates the social distancing measures may be working. Of course, it may also be a fluke. If you notice the growth rates since March 4, you’ll see we have multiple days in the 1.2 to 1.3 range, but an overall trend much higher.

Finally, under the “best case” scenario, we see the growth rate dropping significantly, but still end up with 848,000 Americans infected.

Implications

Understanding the limited number of hospital beds available in the US, if 13 million people are infected under current growth, and a 10% hospitalization rate, all available beds in the US could be full no later than April 7. If the hospitalization rate is 15%, that date is no later than April 5. This says nothing of the potential effect of healthcare workers becoming infected. In the SARS outbreak a significant number of the cases were medical workers. If Covid follows suit, the issue of available beds may be just one major concern.

Even under the best case scenario, with a 15% hospitalization rate, more than half the available beds in the entire country are occupied by Easter. That leaves precious little capacity for problems like catastrophic floods and tornadoes (common in spring) or any other significant healthcare disruptions in communities.

As a country, we are simply not prepared for a healthcare disaster of the type that Scenario One represents. This is why most medical professionals and governors are urging us to do all we can to avoid that outcome.

Scenario Four is our best hope for minimizing the chance that our medical infrastructure will collapse in the next three weeks. This is simply not the time to be setting arbitrary deadlines for “packed churches” at the risk of a public health catastrophe.