What #Covid could look like for Congress

I looked the other day at the number of US Senators over 60, and ran some numbers based on estimates of both infection and fatality rate to see what might happen in a body that is comprised largely of senior citizens; two-thirds of the US Senate is over 60.

That led me to look at the same data for the US House, and then to look at the partisan breakdown. Below is the table of data if you want to jump ahead, but first let me offer some explanation.

Assumptions

Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch suggests that 40–70% of the adults on Earth will be infected in the next year. My estimates for infection rate assume that the US Congress is unlikely to look dramatically different from Lipsitch’s estimates. That assumption may not hold given their status and wealth which may give them access to better care than larger populations in the developing world. On the other hand, their status and occupation may make them more likely to contract through handshaking, campaign rallies, etc.

With regard to CFR, I am using estimates based on the outbreak in China at 4.6% for those over 60, 10% for those over 70, and 18% for those over 80. In Italy, the CFR for patients over 80 is considerably higher. In South Korea, CFR has been considerably lower. You have to pick a number, so I chose that one.

What the Estimates Show

Based on those figures, we would see at least two US Senators succumb to #covid, and could see as many as 4, one over 80, 2 over 70, and 1 over 60.

Given the age distribution by party, at the high end, it is likely we would lose one Republican over 80 (4:1) and two Democrats from 70–80 (~2:1). The fourth could go either way as the distribution in the 60s is fairly close to even.

In the House, we would lose at least six House members to the virus, and as many as 11. At the high end, we would likely lose two Democrats over 80 (5.5:1), three (and possibly four) Democrats over 70 (2.3:1), two Republicans over 70) and two from each party over 60.

Implications for the Senate

In the Senate, three seats separate control of the chamber. A loss of three could put the Senate in play. That said, the five members over 80 all represent states that are solidly partisan. Feinstein in California, Shelby in Alabama, Inhofe in Oklahoma and Roberts in Kansas would likely be replaced by their own party.

In the 70–79 age range, this is also likely true with notable “purple state” exceptions of Manchin in West Virginia and Udall in New Mexico.

From 60–69, there is more volatility as you have more swing states like Michigan, Washington, Ohio, and Florida that might more likely result in party shifts.

I should note that while his seat would likely be safe, the Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, is in the upper reaches of the 70–79 bracket. His passing would no doubt have a profound impact.

Implications for the US House

Members of the US House over 60 are relatively uncommon in swing districts. That said, there are a number of politicians in that age group whose passing would mark a dramatic shift in the power dynamics of Washingon. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is 80, and therefore in the high risk tier for #covid. Her majority leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn are in their 70s.

On the GOP side, Minority Leader McCarthy and mMinority Whip Steve Scalise are both in their 50s, so the virus is less likely to result in a leadership vacuum on the right.

The Data

Disclaimer

This analysis is based purely on estimates of the spread of the disease. These estimates are educated estimates from people who study epidemiology. I do not. I am merely attempting to use available data to ask the question “what might happen?”. There are a great number of confounding variables that could throw these projections way, way off. But based on simple numbers may offer one possible outcome that may seem likely based on the current understanding of the virus.

Further note: As of last night, an aide to Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington (age: 61) had tested positive for coronavirus.